Importance of Line Shopping For Football Prop Bets
Since the legalization of online sports betting in 2018, over 40 sportsbooks have flooded the market across over 20 states in the USA (and counting). As a result of this influx, a bettor has a variety of odds to choose from like never before. In order to maximize the value out of every bet, itās imperative they line shop.
What Is Prop Betting?
A prop bet, (short for proposition) is a bet that has nothing to do with the final result of a game or match (win/loss/tie). Rather, itās centered on stats an individual team or player records throughout a game (e.g. Tom Brady over/under 2.5 touchdowns, Jonathan Taylor over/under 275 rushing yards, team to score most touchdowns). The wide array of prop bets can create value gaps in odds across different sportsbooks that are worth taking advantage of.
What is line shopping, and its significance with NFL Prop Bets?
Line shopping involves comparing odds for a particular bet (e.g. Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown) and seeing that line laid out across all available sportsbooks. To show the chasm across different sportsbook lines for this bet, see the image above
As you can see, the most profitable odds for Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown against the Ravens are at -105 with BetMGM. The least profitable are with Caesars at -135. If you were to lay down $100 on BetMGM for this wager, your return (assuming Fournette scores a touchdown) would yield a payout of $195.24. With Caesarās, the same bet would return $174.07 (for more information about betting odds, see our article here).
This payout difference of $21.17 (or more importantly, 21% ROI) is a stark contrast if one is interested in betting for any period of time. This simple line shopping tool is one of many, takes little time, and is free to access at ftnbets.com/propshop. Simply select a desired team or player, and the best odds will be displayed across all available platforms in your region for a desired wager type.
Breaking even in this industry can be a challenge in and of itself, so it should be in the best interest of all bettors to get the most value of every bet they place, ensuring they have the best possible chances of profit.
When betting hockey it is crucial to understand that it is a random sport in nature. The game is being played on a sheet of ice, with players skating around on less than one inch wide steel blades, chasing a rubber puck around all while trying to kill each other. This causes for unlikely events to occur more often than the other three major sports. I find it necessary to keep this in mind when deciding what bets to place on an NHL game. Even the best teams can dominate a game, have the majority of shots on goal and time of possession, and still lose the game! So with that, I still think itās possible to win more often than not when betting hockey, you just have to be smart about what your betting along with sticking to your units.
A few different factors can help you win bets in this improbable sport. First off, scheduling. With hockey being such a physically taxing sport, targeting teams that played the night before in a āback to backā scenario is one advantage the player can have against the books. The line often reflects this, but nevertheless something to keep in mind. The Stanley Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche dominated their home opener this year after they raised their championship banner, winning in deciding fashion 5- 2. This game was played at home, but the next day they then had to play AT CALGARY, against a Flames team they had beaten in last yearās playoffs. The Avs ended up losing that game 5-3. Itās easy to see why when you consider they had to make the trip up to Calgary after such an emotional win and championship ceremony the night before. You could have easily won this bet by simply considering the schedule. It plays a major role in which team is going to show up 100% in a given night.
Adjusting the line
Letās say you like a favorite in a game, but the line is too heavily juiced to bet on. This is where it can be advantageous to take the 3 way line instead of the moneyline. This comes with a risk, as you can only win your bet in regulation. If both teams are tied after three periods, you lose your bet. However, if it is a matchup you feel comfortable with, I find it smart to take the 3 way bet as itās available at much better odds than the moneyline due to that risk losing with overtime. An example from today: the Avalanche take on the rebuilding Devils in New Jersey, with the Avs favored at -145.Ā Ā That line is a little too juiced for me to comfortably bet, however when you look at the three way line it is at +108. That is better than even money, you get to take the superior team at plus odds in taking this particular bet.
Totals and goalies
Due to a heightened skill level in players than in years past, along with the rules now skewed towards offense, there are more goals scored than there was say 20 years ago. Goalies are also better nowadays than they used to be, but there are only a handful of Brickwall Backstops that can actually save a game for their team. Avoiding these goaltenders and targeting poorly defensive teams can be a good recipe for success in betting overs in the NHL. This is a strategy that can pay consistent dividends if you can pick and choose your spots wisely. The Toronto Maple Leafs are a good example of a team to target with this strategy. A top 5 offense year after year, yet they struggle to keep pucks out with constant goaltending and defensive problems.
Player Props
Certain Player props can also have advantageous lines to the player if you pay attention to beat writers and line combinations. If a player on the first line is ruled out, he must be replaced by someone else on that top line. That means this new comer will be playing with much higher skilled linemates than he is used to, potentially leading to more scoring opportunities for that individual. The line often wonāt reflect this, and is something you can definitely target when it comes to deciding which player props to take. New line combinations offers the same principle in targeting a guy that is now playing much higher skilled players than he has been.
You start out naive looking for free sports handicappers and advice. You then scour the internet for free picks like these. If you are a newbie sports better like I am who views sports betting as a fun pass time, rather than a long-term income plan, there are a few lessons Iāve learned the hard way.Ā You start learning the basics like how to calculate odds and understanding the difference between money line and spread. Since then, I have picked up a few rules that have helped me win more money.Ā Ā
It may seem tempting to go with pure emotion but there is no quicker way than to turn the joy of sports betting into ashes in your mouth because youāve doubled down with money on the outcome of your favourite sports team.Ā Itās easy to get caught up in the hype when surrounded by like-minded people.Ā Go with your gut feeling but donāt allow your emotions to control you.Ā There is a lot of superstition in sports but you won’t find good or even free sports handicappers being swayed by their team.
Most lines are set by a few math nerds in Vegas but the odds will change as the action flows into each outcome.Ā More money going towards one outcome will alter the payout and this will change right up to and during a match.Ā This is helpful to understand while live betting because you can find better odds that might not have been available before the start of the game.
Ā So youāve listened to the free sports handicappers who have all stated their opinions.Ā The action is all flowing in the same direction.Ā The odds are -210 so it seems like a safe bet.Ā You bet your bankroll because you want to make some money.Ā Itās an obvious safe bet and then you lose.Ā Well on Any Given Sunday the experts and the money can be wrong.Ā Look to exploit this for big returns but always keep an open mind.Ā Sometimes it pays to be a contrarian.Ā
Of course, this is a cliche but never forget it.Ā That line may have seemed like a sure thing but you donāt want to be eating ramen for a week because of a missed field goal.Ā And we all have that regret after winning a parley or +300 money line āif only I bet more.ā However, hindsight is a 20/20 vision.Ā Bet with your head, not over it.Ā Thereās always another match and if you donāt see a line you like, then donāt bet. Even experienced and free sports handicappers use basic unit measures to control their sports betting.
It kind of defeats the purpose if you arenāt enjoying yourself.Ā Betting enhances the experience of watching sports but if you find yourself watching Chinese table tennis at 2 in the morning ask yourself if you are having fun.Ā If there is a sport you enjoy watching, the odds of winning are much higher because you understand the game.Ā Why force yourself to watch a match you have no interest in just because you put money down?Ā